HILLARY'S FUTURE – AT 9:28 A.M. ET:  No one seriously expected that Bernie Sanders, an elderly socialist from Vermont with a distinct New York accent, would be so successful in challenging Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination.

But challenge he has.  Bernie is actually ahead of Clinton in some national polls.  I suspect this isn't because Bernie himself is so popular.  Rather, it's a backlash against Clinton, who is seen by many as deceptive, around too long, and last generation. 

It may be unfair, to the extent that Hillary beats the pants off Sanders in every debate.  She is far more knowledgeable and grounded.  He's a flaky socialist with ridiculous solutions.  If I absolutely had to choose between the two for president, I would have to choose Hillary, but the pain would be great.  Fortunately, there's another party. 

Bernie may win the Nevada caucuses on Saturday.  But then the road for him gets tougher.  The Dems vote in the critical South Carolina primary a week from Saturday, and Hillary maintains a commanding lead.  From Fox:

While the Democratic race in South Carolina has narrowed, Hillary Clinton continues to trounce Bernie Sanders.

Likely Democratic primary voters favor Clinton over Sanders by 28 points (56-28 percent), according to a Fox News poll released Thursday. Another 17 percent remain undecided or plan to back someone else.

In December, Clinton held a 44-point lead (65-21 percent).

The South Carolina electorate is more diverse than those of Iowa and New Hampshire, the two states that have held contests so far -- and that helps the former secretary of state. Even so, sentiment has shifted among some of Clinton’s best groups.

Clinton led among black voters by 82-11 in December (71 points). The new poll finds she leads Sanders by 63-21 percent among blacks (42 points). That’s still a big lead, no doubt. But there’s been a 29-point narrowing.

In addition, two months ago Clinton topped Sanders by 55 points among women (72-17 percent). Now she’s up by 33 points (58-25 percent).

COMMENT:  All true.  But there was a time when Clinton had the field to herself.  She was "inevitable."  With Sanders in the race, there was bound to be some erosion.  There are some voters who will vote for anyone except the frontrunner.

Hillary still leads in superdelegates, the "professional Democrats" who are selected to go to the convention to balance out the childness of the primary voters.  She also leads among minorities.  She may yet stabilize her situation and win the nomination.

The 900-pound gorilla in the room is not Bernie Sanders, it's the FBI investigation.  If it goes sour for Hillary, she may be toast, in which case the Democratic powers will try to bring in Biden to stop Bernie, and they may be successful.

The other 900-pound gorilla, not yet in the room, is former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who can finance his own campaign.  If he gets in, he may well take more votes from the Democratic candidate than from the Republican. 

The Democratic race is as fascinating as the Republican, but at least no Republican is facing jail time.

February 19, 2016